Part one of this article addressed the issue of a player deciding whether he should fold or not. The player had a ten going into the Flop. There are two tens remaining in the deck and the probability of the UK bingo player drawing a ten was calculated as 2/37 or 5.4%. The question is what should the player do now?

Suppose you decide to stay and call the bets. You need, say, another ten now, assuming you caught the pair. After the deal with the top card burned, there are thirty cards remaining. The percentage probability of drawing the final ten is 3.3%.  If you return to the post Flop situation, the possibility of drawing a pair of tens to match your high card is simply 0.054 x 0.033 or 0.0017, which is 0.17%. This is not a good way to play poker.  If you were drawing to a four card flush the probability of catching the fifth card is around 35%. The bingo game poker player should have folded and saved the money. The odds of catching the pair of tens in this situation are less than half of one percent. How much did you spend in bets in this situation?

Is this the way you really want to play casino games?  Not folding after the Flop has cost you the final two rounds of betting and raises if you stay. The possibility of pairing after the Flop is less than 1%. It isn’t worth it no matter how good your hunch. Save the money and fold at the Flop.